Thinking Magazine #17 12-22-92

Thinking Magazine is One Year Old

Well, it was just about a year ago I put out my first issue of Thinking Magazine and what a year it has been. Originally born out of total frustration with reality I felt the need to make some sense out of the chaos. Now it seems that there is a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel.

Last year in issue #2 I made my 1992 predictions. Now that the year is almost over lets go back and see how I did.

I think Bill Clinton will be the one to run against Bush. I think he will do better than Dukakus did and will run a smarter campaign. I think that Bush will try to put a rosy face on the economy but the economy will not respond to Bush's efforts. The news headlines will read "Bush fails to artificially pump up the economy during election year." But ultimately that Bush will run a fear and hate campaign and will win by a narrow margin. I think that David Duke will fizzle out early but will last long enough to do Bush damage among Republicans.

But Bush did try to put a rosy face on the economy. He cut the tax deductions for your paychecks in January to put more money in your pockets this year. Now this gives you the illusion that you got a tax cut, but actually taxes went up last year. When April 15th comes around you'll find that you won't be getting your tax refund. Many of you will be sending in additional taxes.

Bush sure did run a fear and hate campaign. A lot harder than I had predicted. I definitely got that one right. Duke did fizzle early, but it was Buchannan who took a hunk out of Bush's hide. And I think he did the most damage at the Republican convention when he endorsed Bush.

Another thing that I think that he will do to pump up the economy is to call in favors from the Middle East and artificially drop the price of oil. I predict that gas prices on election day will be below 75 cents a gallon.

On the subject of the economy, it will continue to get worse. But it will get worse slowly. I predict that the unstable economy will cause the stock market to swing wildly over 1992. I think that by the end of 1992 that a 500 point swing in the market won't be considered highly unusual.

The stock market is artificially high right now. If you're thinking about "going public" do it now. The reason it's so high is because interest rates are so low that the stock market is the only place to make money. If the fed lowers it's interest rates by another 1/2 point look for the DOW to pass 3500. But, if at some point they can't hold the interest rate low and say raise it by 1 1/2 percent then the stock market might make a "correction" of 600 - 900 points. The market can be compared to a roller coaster. The first big hill is the scariest. Then you get used to it (more or less).

In order to fix the economy, there are going to have to be massive reforms. That's not going to happen during an election year. If it happens it will happen in 1993 when everyone is safely elected. Our leaders are real wimps but that's what the people of this country seem to want. So, since no one will take a chance on real reform, the economy will continue to rot. I'm glad I'm in the software business <grin>.

How about the Soviet Union? There's a wild card for ya. Anyone guessing here is really out on a limb so this prediction is worth 100 points. So let's see if we can figure this one out. Gorby isn't going to go away. I think he's going to lay low and maybe tour the world some. He would make a great one to be chief beggar of the new commonwealth. Now that Yeltzin is the man on top he is the man to hate. The Soviets are just as stupid as we are if not more so. They think only with their bellies. Gorby may have figured out that if he gets more for the belly than Boris then he will be the popular one.

So I predict that Yeltzin's popularity will drop like a rock. I think that the republics will resent Yeltzin acting like a Czar. I think that Gorby will eventually form an opposition party and be elected president of the commonwealth. That's my longshot prediction.

As far as a Gorby comeback, that hasn't happened, yet. I'm still hoping though.

In the world of computers, I predict that the operating system war between IBM and MicroSoft will continue to rage. I think that IBM will continue to gain ground against MS but will not sell nearly as much OS/2 as MicroSoft sells Windows 3.1. I think both products will be late and they will both be out in June. I think that MicroSoft will not have their new NT operating system out by the end of the year. I think that OS/2 will be better than Windows 3.1, but most people will still be running DOS on New Years Day 1993.

So who will win this war between IBM and MS? Novell will. I predict that Novell will introduce some surprises in 1992 and by the end of the year it will be considered a three way contest. You heard it here first!

But Novell lost out on a deal for IBM to bundle Novell's DOS on IBM machines because DR-DOS has several incompatibilities and Novell didn't deal with these bugs in a timely manner. This is the prediction that could have been, but Novell snatched defeat out of the mouth of victory. I'll go into more detail on this in a future issue with an inside exclusive story about how Novell got into the DOS business. Stay tuned.

I predict that by the end of 1992 that 9600 baud modems will be available through someone advertising in Computer Shopper for under $125. ($150 with FAX)

A new concept will begin to be talked about in education. This new concept will be the "teacherless classroom". That's where children are taught primarily by computers running sophisticated educational software. I predict that by the end of the year the average person will have at least heard of this concept and that a significant number of people will be arguing about if or when this will eventually happen.

On the Middle East, I think that progress will plod forward over the next several years. Things will continue to move forward but not fast enough to be exciting. I have a friend who is a psychic. Her initials are CP and I'm not using her name right now because I don't have her permission to do so. CP predicts that we will take out Saddam in December of 1992 because some event will occur where we "have to". It will either be us or the Israelis and it may be nuclear. If this one happens then CP gets 1000 points and I'm going to buy her a 900 number!

There is a certain amount of logic behind this prediction. With the collapse of the Soviet Union and 12 hungry republics armed to the teeth with warheads, (despite the news reports, I believe they ALL have them) and when you consider how badly Saddam wants one, you can't help but wonder if he'll find a way to purchase one.

Now for some easy predictions. I predict that there will a flood somewhere. I predict that Star Trek TNG will still be the best show on TV and there will be another last one ever Star Trek movie in the works by the end of the year. It's not like I don't like TOS (The Original Series) but I think the movies are ruining it.

There wasn't a new Trek VII this year but there is one in the works. So I'm right on that one except for the timing.

I think that 1992 will be considered to be a very interesting year. With the war in the gulf and the collapse of the Soviet Union 1991 became the most interesting year in recent history. I predict that 1992 will be even more interesting than 1991.

So how did I do in my predictions? Well, in my unbiased humble opinion I think I did fairly well. The way I measure results is that I compare myself to other predictors and see how many I get right compared to the experts. I think I did better than 90% of the rest of them based on what I remember was predicted. We'll see more details on this as we get closer to New Years Day.

Looking back I noticed that my view of the future was tainted by my frustrations with reality. I also had a tendency to go for the "long shot" with the idea of the big "TolJaSo" in mind. I guess that in the next issue that I'm going to make my 1993 predictions. Should I go for accuracy? Or is it more fun to sacrifice some accuracy and go for the "Big Game"? I guess we'll see what kind of mood I'm in when I write the next one.

How the Future Works

Looking back the odds were clearly in Bush's favor. I believe that the future is a variable and isn't carved in stone. Some people have this view that time is like a movie that has already been shot and were here just watching it, but we can't affect the ending. I look at the future in terms of probable conclusions based on existing events. But if one makes minor corrections to the present, one can change the odds and create a new series of events which change the future. I think that there were enough of us who decided that they were going to buck the odds and change the course of events.

Based on the logical conclusion of the chain of events that were in place on January 1st 1992 that Bush should have won hands down and that his winning was the future at that point. But if you look further down the road that same chain of events would have put our country, the sole remaining nuclear superpower, on a course of almost certain economic collapse. And the combination of the United States with a failing society and being ruled by the religious right controlling a nuclear arsenal was very scary indeed. I believe that a sufficient number of people realized what was happening and did what it took to change the course of future events.

It is possible for one person to change the course of human history. Gorbechev dissolved the Communist block and ended the cold war all by himself. Hitler was merely a German artist, but came closer to destroying civilization than anyone in history. Ghandi overthrew British rule in India. Mandella is in the process of overthrowing white rule in South Africa.

Every one of you reading this has the potential to accomplish as much or more than these people did. You can change the course of history. You can decide the future for all of humanity. I believe that there are no guarantees that we are going to come out all right. We only do well to the extent that we make it happen. And if we fail to make it happen then all we will have left is our fossils and our trash at the bottom of the sea.

Almost Got Picked

For those of you who watched Clinton's economic summit trying to see if I was there, I wasn't. I came close though. A few days before I published the last issue of Thinking Magazine I got a call from the Clinton Economic Transition team and they told me I was one of the finalists. A few days before the summit though they called me back and said that I didn't get picked.

I did manage to get to watch a few hours of it on C-Span and it was interesting. It was rather frustrating feeling like I should be there. But I haven't given up. I'm hell bent on getting 5 minutes with Clinton to get some of my ideas into his hands. I still view Clinton's election as the first step to recovery, and that it is imperative that he succeed.

On one of the letters I wrote, I wrote a note on the bottom saying that if he was looking for some music for the inauguration, that I knew an Ozark hippy bluegrass band called "Hot Mulch" that I thought would be great. A few days ago I got a call from the transition team wanting to hear a tape of the band. So, Hot Mulch may go to Washington.

I'm planning on being at the inauguration. I'm exhibiting at Networld, a computer show in Boston. The show is a week before so Vicki and I are going to spend the week in DC. Hopefully I can get some lobbying in. If not at least I'll have a little vacation.

Christmas Shopping Ideas

For those of you who are scrambling to get your Christmas shopping done, here's a few hot ideas. For the political activist I found a software package called "Write Your Congressman!". I picked this little goody up at Sam's Wholesale for a mere twenty five bucks. This program is an adaptation of the ACT contact manager program and is written for salesmen to keep in contact with clients and customers. It has a database with the names, addresses, phone numbers, fax numbers, and key contact people for all the congressmen, senators, governors, supreme court justices, and the president and vice president.

The package includes a word processor, scheduler, merge printing, and contact history tracking. It also allows you to export the data to a comma delimited ascii file. They also offer a free upgrade for the new data for after the election. Whether you're into teaching gay rights to grade school children or torching abortion clinics, this is the software for you.

In issue #12 I wrote about some wonderful Bose Acoustimass-5 speakers I bought this summer for $750. Well low and behold the price has dropped and these speakers can be had for $350. I thought they were great at the price I paid, but at $350 it's a musthave item. These speakers look like a pair of 3 inch cubes on each side with a small base unit assembly, but don't let the size fool you. These speakers put out better sound than the massive columns with giant woofers. I still wonder -- how do they do it?

Another slick little toy is VCR+. It looks like a remote control but it controls your VCR and cable box. It has it's own clock in it and you program it by entering the VCR+ code numbers in your TV Guide or from the listings in your Sunday newspaper. This device sends out the signals to run your VCR and cable box turning the VCR on, setting the clock, and changing to the right channel. It is much easier and much more reliable than the built in VCR programming. And if you take a power dip you don't loose your programming. With a device like this you no longer have to cancel that important business trip so you can record Star Trek.

Dr. Kavorkian is Right

You have heard of the doctor in Michigan who is assisting people commit suicide. So far he's helped 8 terminally ill women kill themselves. I for one support his efforts and I consider this doctor a hero. He is attempting to deal with death in a realistic way instead of trying to sweep the issue under the rug.

Very few of us believe that we are actually going to die someday. I have this fantasy myself that technology is going to eliminate death and that all I have to do is hang in there long enough till the technology develops. Realistically though, of all the people on the planet who were born 200 years ago, none of them are alive today.

Therefore, since we all die, we must assume that death is a part of life. And if we want the best life for our friends and loved ones, then we should also want the best death for them as well. And it is often the case that suicide is the best solution a person might have.

"But Marc", you might say, "What if the person who wants to die is wrong?" Well here's how I see it. If it's my life then it's my death. If I make the wrong decision then it is my wrong decision to make. But I'm a conservative and I tend towards the idea that the government needs to stay out of personal decisions. Thus if a person wants to kill himself I think he ultimately has the right to do so.

If I have a cat who is old and sick and is suffering then I am responsible to do the "humane thing" and put the poor creature out of it's misery. I would think that we should extend the same services to humans as well. We, as a society, need to face reality.

Now It's Aids Cards

In past issues I mentioned my friends Cat and Dean of Eclipse Publishing who put out those political scandal trading cards. You might have seen them in the news last year when they released the "True Crime" trading cards. Well the best is yet to come. In February they are releasing the most interesting cards yet, the Aids Cards!

The complete aids card set will have 110 cards that will be packaged in packs of 12. They will also come with a condom in each pack and will be sold through card and comic book stores and maybe some mass merchants. Besides being informative about the spread of AIDS it also provides a discreet way to purchase a condom. You're really buying cards right? This will help teenagers protect themselves without their parents and friends knowing they're having sex.

In spite of all the protests from various groups about the True Crime trading cards, Eclipse did very well. In fact they attribute a lot of sales to the protests. Next week Eclipse is releasing True Crime II and hopes they do as well as the first batch.

Novell Buys Out Unix

Here's a hot little news item in the computer industry. Novell is buying out AT&T's Unix Systems Laboratory. Here's the press release.

Summit, N.J. -- December 21,1992 -- Novell, Inc. (NASDAQ:NOVL) and AT&T jointly announced today they have signed a letter of intent for Novell to acquire UNIX System Laboratories. USL is a subsidiary of AT&T that provides computer vendors with the UNIX operating system and related software and services based on open, international standards for computing and communications.

Under the terms of the letter of intent, existing shares of USL common stock would be exchanged for up to 12.3 million newly issued shares of Novell common stock in a tax-free merger accounted for as a purchase. Novell would issue approximately 11.1 million shares of common stock to the current non-Novell USL shareholders. In addition the outstanding USL stock options and other equity incentives would be exchanged for Novell stock, or options, or rights to acquire shares of Novell stock, all in accordance with the terms of USL employee plans and the definitive agreement.

AT&T owns approximately 77 percent of the outstanding shares of USL. Novell currently holds approximately 5 percent of USL's outstanding stock, and 11 other investors hold approximately 18 percent.

The signing of the letter of intent has been approved by the boards of directors of Novell and AT&T, but the merger remains subject to the approval of USL stockholders, regulatory approvals, the signing of a definitive merger agreement and other normal conditions to closing. The acquisition is expected to be completed during the first calendar quarter of 1993.

"Our support of UNIX systems, as evidenced by our earlier investment in USL and the joint creation of Univel, has been driven by the widespread use of UNIX at our customer sites and by our desire to work closely with our industry partners," said Raymond J. Noorda, president and chief executive officer of Novell. "This acquisition is being done at the urging of customers who have asked us to support the UNIX system directly and integrate it more fully within the NetWare environment. This reflects the growing importance of UNIX systems which are increasingly being used for rightsizing business applications on computer networks."

Novell recognizes and values the importance of UNIX as an open accessible technology to OEM partners and customers around the world. As part of Novell, USL's commitment to fair and neutral access to UNIX technology will not change.

Robert M. Kavner, AT&T group executive for communications products, reiterated what the company has said since 1991 that AT&T intended to reduce its ownership in USL, but that AT&T remains firmly committed to the UNIX system. "Associating USL with Novell, another strong company, will allow USL to be an even more effective and flourishing force in the software industry," Kavner said.

Roel Pieper president and chief executive officer of USL said, "The two best technologies for open systems and interoperability are coming together within one company. The UNIX system provides reliable, secure sophisticated capabilities for network computing applications. The NetWare environment provides integrated cross-platform system services. The combination of the two enables distributed computing solutions to be deployed simply and cost effectively from desktops to mainframes."

USL will become a wholly owned subsidiary of Novell, maintaining its operations in Summit, New Jersey. USL was formed in 1991 around AT&T's UNIX Software Operation which had its roots in AT&T Bell Laboratories. Annual revenues are in excess of $80 million.

In April 1991, AT&T sold a portion of its total interest in USL to a number of computer industry concerns. AT&T said then it took that action to ensure the growth of UNIX System V and open operating systems by establishing an independent unit with business oversight by investors who would ensure that USL was operated for the good of the industry as a whole, along with technical input on product directions by other industry groups.

Other USL investors are: Amdahl Corporation, FUJITSU, Limited, ICL Plc., Institute for Information Industry, Motorola, Inc., NEC Corporation, OKI Electric Industry Co., Ltd., Ing. C. Olivetti & Co. S.p.A., Sun Microsystems, TATA Consultancy Services and Toshiba Corporation.

The proposed transaction would be accounted for as a purchase. On this basis, the acquisition could result in a one- time write-off by Novell of up to $250 million in the fiscal quarter in which the transaction closes. Most of the remaining cost of the purchase would be amortized over five to fifteen years. The Novell shares required for the transaction will represent approximately 4 percent of the outstanding shares of Novell common stock.

For AT&T and other USL shareholders the exchange of shares within the proposed transaction will be tax free. Based on current Novell stock price, AT&T would expect to recognize a gain at the time of closing in excess of $100 million in net income.

When the acquisition is completed, AT&T would hold approximately 3 percent of Novell's common stock. Kavner emphasized that AT&T viewed its holdings in Novell as an investment and that AT&T had no plans to be involved in USL or Novell's operations or business decisions.

USL develops and markets the UNIX System V operating system, the TUXEDO Enterprise Transaction Processing System and other standards-based system software products to open systems computer vendors worldwide. USL also provides education and management consulting for UNIX systems and related technologies.

AT&T is a global communications and computer company, with total 1991 revenues of $63.1 billion. It operates the world's biggest and most advanced long distance network and provides communications services and products, as well as network equipment and computer systems, to businesses, consumers, telecommunications service providers and government agencies.

Novell, Inc. is an operating system software company and developer of network services and specialized and general purpose operating system products, including NetWare and UnixWare products. Novell's NetWare network computing products manage and control the sharing of services, data and applications among computer workgroups, departmental networks and across business-wide information systems.

Novell, Inc - Peter Troop 408-473-8361 AT&T - Dick Gray 908-221-5057 UNIX System Laboratories - Larry Lytle 908-522-5186

Writing My Own BBS Software

After running TBBS on my system for years and looking at other packages I finally decided that I wasn't going to get what I want unless I write my own BBS software. So I'm adding communications commands to my MarxMenu script language. I should have a BBS running shortly. It won't have all the features I want right away, but it has one feature that none of them have -- there's almost nothing it can't do.

MarxMenu is my script language that is turning into a programming language. It has 800 commands and is pascalish looking. I'm not only going to have total control of the look and feel, but I'm going to be able to send and receive faxes on the same lines that I'm taking modem calls. The fax sending will interface into my MHS mail system so that I can send faxes by sending EMail to user FAX. Incoming faxes will generate an EMail message indicating that a new fax has arrived.

Tech support files uploaded to the BBS will be routed through MHS as a file enclosed in a message to the tech support department. Tech support won't have to log into the BBS to get these files.

Initially I won't have a message base but that will come soon. I will probably interface someones message door. MarxMenu will be a plug-n-play type of system so that if you can't do it in MarxMenu then you have MarxMenu run something that will. I'm figuring that once I get it working I can release it so that others might develop goodies I can use so I don't have to write everything myself.

For those of you who are wondering what programming a communications program in MarxMenu is like, here's a sample terminal program for calling BBS systems.

Comment
==========================================================

Copyright 1992 by Marc Perkel * All right reserved.

This program is a sample communications program in Marxmenu.
It isn't as good as Procomm, but it isn't half bad for a few
pages of code.

=========================================================
EndComment

Var InitString Compuserve

Setup
ComPort = Com2             ;your com port
InitString = 'ATZ'         ;your init string
Compuserve = False         ;set to true if accessing Compuserve
ComInitPort(9600,8,'N',1)

if Compuserve
   ComStripHighBit
   ComBPlus
endif

Writeln 'MarxCom * Copyright 1992 by Marc Perkel'
Writeln
Writeln 'Alt-X to Exit * Alt-H to HangUp * PgUp to Upload * PgDn to Download
Writeln
ComWrite InitString CR

Terminal

;----- Set up Communications

Procedure Setup
   Explode Off
   ClearScreenOnExit Off
   BlankTime = 0
   Mouse Off
   NoBoxBorder
   AnsiWindows
   DrawBox 1 1 ScreenWidth ScreenHeight
   WordStarKeys Off
   {Set up event logic}

   KeyEvent(PgDnKey) = loc DownLoad
   KeyEvent(PgUpKey) = loc UpLoad
   KeyEvent(AltX)  = loc ExitProgram
   KeyEvent(AltH)  = loc Hangup
   ComXmitAbortProgram = loc XmitAbort
   ComXmitStatusProgram = loc XmitStatus

EndProc


;----- This is the main terminal loop

Procedure Terminal
   while True
      Cursor On
      if KbdReady then ComWrite(ReadKey)
      if ComCharReady then Write(ComReadChar)
   endwhile
EndProc


;----- Exit the Menu

Procedure ExitProgram
   ExitMenu
EndProc


;----- Download Menu

Procedure DownLoad
var FileName Proto
   Proto = PickProtocol
   if Proto = Esc
      Return

   elseif Proto = '1'
      FileName = AskForFileName
      if FileName = '' then return
      ComRecXModem(FileName)

   elseif Proto = '2'
      FileName = AskForFileName
      if FileName = '' then return
      ComRec1kXModem(FileName)

   elseif Proto = '3'
      ComRecYModem

   elseif Proto = '4'
      ComRecYModemG

   elseif Proto = '5'
      ComRecZModem

   elseif Proto = '6'
      ComRecKermit

   endif

EndProc


;----- UpLoad Menu

Procedure UpLoad
var FileName Proto
   FileName = AskForFileName
   if (FileName <> '') and ExistFile(FileName)
      Proto = PickProtocol
      if Proto = Esc then Return

      FileName = CleanFileName(FileName)
      Writeln

      if Proto = '1'
         ComSendXModem(FileName)

      elseif Proto = '2'
         ComSend1kXModem(FileName)

      elseif Proto = '3'
         ComSendYModem(FileName)

      elseif Proto = '4'
         ComSendYModemG(FileName)

      elseif Proto = '5'
         ComSendZModem(FileName)

      elseif Proto = '6'
         ComSendKermit(FileName)

      endif

   endif
EndProc


Procedure AskForFileName
var FileName
   DoubleLineBox
   BoxBorderColor LCyan Mag
   BoxInsideColor Yellow Mag
   InverseColor Yellow Red
   DrawBox 10 20 40 3
   Write ' FileName: '
   FileName = Readln
   EraseTopWindow
   Return FileName
EndProc


Procedure PickProtocol
var Ch
   DoubleLineBox
   BoxBorderColor LCyan Mag
   BoxInsideColor Yellow Mag
   InverseColor Yellow Red
   DrawBox 50 7 20 8
   UseArrows On
   Writeln '  1 - XModem'
   Writeln '  2 - XModem 1k'
   Writeln '  3 - YModem'
   Writeln '  4 - YModem G'
   Writeln '  5 - ZModem'
   Write   '  6 - Kermit'
   Ch = ReadKey
   UseArrows Off
   EraseTopWindow
   Return Ch
EndProc


;----- Hangup Modem

Procedure HangUp
   Writeln
   Writeln
   Writeln 'Hanging Up'
   Writeln
   ComDTR Off
   Wait 50
   ComDTR
EndProc


;----- ESC aborts UpLoad or Download

Procedure XmitAbort
var Ch
   if not KbdReady then Return False
   Ch = ReadKey
   if Ch <> Esc then Return False
   Return True
EndProc


;----- Display file transfer status

Procedure XmitStatus
   if ComXmitStarting
      DoubleLineBox
      BoxBorderColor LCyan Mag
      BoxInsideColor White Mag
      BoxHeaderColor Yellow Cyan
      BoxHeader ' Transfer Status - ' + ComProtocol + ' '
      DrawBox 43 6 35 9
   endif
   GotoXY 1 1
   Write '         File Name: ' ComFileName
   ClearLine
   Writeln
   Write ' Bytes Transferred: ' ComBytesTransferred
   ClearLine
   Writeln
   Write '   Bytes Remaining: ' ComBytesRemaining
   ClearLine
   Writeln
   Write '         File Size: ' ComFileSize
   ClearLine
   Writeln
   Write '        Block Size: ' ComBlockSize
   ClearLine
   Writeln
   Write '      Block Errors: ' ComBlockErrors
   ClearLine
   Writeln
   Write '      Total Errors: ' ComTotalErrors
   ClearLine
   if ComXmitEnding
      EraseTopWindow
   endif
EndProc

;----- That's it folks!